LATEST RESEARCH
“The Appropriate Role of Long-run Inflation Expectations in the Monetary Policy Process,” manuscript in progress, August 2022.
“The Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework in the wake of COVID-19: New Framework Elements, and ad hoc Fiscal-Monetary Coordination,” M-RCBG Associate Working Paper No. 163, March 2021. Here
“Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy,” with Daniel Cooper and Giovanni Olivei, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspectives, 2020. Here
PUBLICATIONS IN REFEREED JOURNALS
“Should the Fed Regularly Evaluate its Monetary Policy Framework?” with G. Olivei, E. Rosengren, and G. Tootell, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2018, Janice Eberley and James Stock, editors, August 2019.
“Expectations as a Source of Macroeconomic Persistence: Evidence from Survey Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models,” Journal of Monetary Economics, April 2017, Vol. 86, pp. 22–35. Here
“The Role of Expectations in Inflation Dynamics,” International Journal of Central Banking, January 2012, vol. 8, Supplement 1, pp. 137-166. Here
“Inflation Dynamics When Inflation is Near Zero,” with Giovanni Olivei and Geoffrey Tootell, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, February 2012, Vol. 44 No. 1, pp. 83-122. Here
“Eyes on the Prize: How Did the Fed Respond to Stock Prices?” with Geoffrey Tootell, Journal of Monetary Economics, May 2008 Vol. 55 No. 4, pp. 796-805. Here
“Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence,” International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 2 No. 3, 2006, pp. 49-86. Here
“Risky Habits: Risk Sharing, Habit Formation and International Consumption Correlations,” with Michael Klein, Review of International Economics Vol. 14 No. 4, 2006, pp. 712-740. Here
“Estimating the Euler Equation for Output,” with Glenn Rudebusch, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 51, 2004, pp. 1133-1153. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1b0G0ER3nZ-CKJyjJJ025DWfXX18VLmjP/view?usp=sharing
“Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models,” with Arturo Estrella Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85 No. 1, February 2003, pp. 94-104. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1A_fdlkbifNhGSgXsEyw9gQsgvVgQT7_4/view?usp=sharing
“Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational Expectations Models,” with Arturo Estrella, American Economic Review, Vol. 92 No. 4, September 2002, pp. 1013-1028 . https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gyXJDWhJofFj1qkU6pkSTftO5E4SEsVp/view?usp=sharing
“Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary Policy Models,” American Economic Review, vol. 90, No. 3, June 2000, pp. 367-390. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gCAHln-CzWFxTMA-qiaMMsPKp7YZsSSa/view?usp=sharing
“Monetary Policy When Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero”, with B. Madigan, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79:4 , (Nov. 1997) pp. 573-585. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NlPCKkH3s5Qiyp4KCP4Nd62rARKFT5yX/view?usp=sharing
“The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, No. 3, Aug. 1997, pp. 338-350. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1okW8pol- WM0s15yfvhSk3AHleNbKq1ZN/view?usp=sharing
“Inflation/Output Variance Trade-offs and Optimal Monetary Policy”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, No.2, May 1997, pp. 214-234. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pa96zUdqBKGB1OdSOrlDa96E6yzq2cH3/view?usp=sharing
“Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-term Interest Rates”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, November 1996, pp. 1183-1209. https://drive.google.com/file/d/14UoANXnQh6-GooLN-s5XVfXUeXQmn0am/view?usp=sharing
“Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule”, with G. Moore, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 27, No. 4, November 1995 (Part I), pp. 1060-70. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MwfvIQWtwGrqhotprWENPnwrsQOCQK9r/view?usp=sharing
“Inflation Persistence”, with G. Moore, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, No. 1, Feb. 1995, pp. 127-159. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PdHp_0AVpyxF727L68ibK04ZSoqu5-QY/view?usp=sharing
“Monetary Policy Trade-Offs and the Correlation Between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output”, American Economic Review 85, March 1995, pp. 219-239. https://drive.google.com/file/d/10CsnCBqFZQnFSKIeMUIfp4MNacVNUM9U/view?usp=sharing
“Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments”, w. G. Moore, S. Schuh, Journal of Monetary Economics 35, February 1995, pp. 115-157. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y5g9VQDVLJW0XDIpTIs8iZhnba59ZGtk/view?usp=sharing
“Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?”, with C. Carroll, D. Wilcox, American Economic Review, 84, No. 5, December 1994, pp. 1397-1408. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_IWZ_6WuVIWbtxK4obqdHM9sGf1McnKl/view?usp=sharing
“Learning About Monetary Regime Shifts in an Overlapping Wage Contract Economy”, with M. Hooker, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 17, 1993, pp. 531-553. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-Nj6GE8-004xzLPYgNHLIB2XCIDt-hjl/view?usp=sharing
“Monetary Policy Rules and the Indicator Properties of Asset Prices”, with G. Moore, Journal of Monetary Economics, 29, 1992, pp. 303-336. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OgiXwlMW-sVyBZSfh-zjcreQN_AZ_K_B/view?usp=sharing
“Estimating Time-Varying Parameters in a Nonlinear Multivariate Model: Inferring Changes in Expectation Behavior Over Time”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 1992, pp. 169-178. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1391675
“A Multivariate Posterior Odds Approach to Assessing Competing Exchange Rate Models”, with K. Weiller, Review of Economics and Statistics, 73, February 1991, pp. 113-124. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1H2O8RoFTwpi0w8Caswt13_yTryao8NjD/view?usp=sharing
“The transmission channels of monetary policy: how have they changed?” with Mauskopf, E. and P. Tinsley, Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), 1990. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ub_qGuF_wgKALsLDL0OcHq_T0SBz0u42/view?usp=sharing
“Estimation of Time-Varying Weights on Alternative Expectation Models: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying Parameters Estimation”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988, pp. 55-61. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WTWG2-ENqK20r7-XV4kqWJ_9Aw8G9VA9/view?usp=sharing
“Minimum Variance Pooling of Forecasts at Different Levels of Aggregation”, with J. Haltmaier, Journal of Forecasting, 7, May 1988, pp. 63-73. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3980070106
“On the Information Content of Consumer Survey Expectations”, Review of Economics and Statistics, March 1988, 70, 140-44. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JS56OIJ857LLWXAzLd-WwVyC5YB6PzEP/view?usp=sharing
“Information Gathering and Expectation Formation under Model Uncertainty”, Southern Economic Journal, Jan. 1987. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1058764
BOOK CHAPTERS
“Introduction: Investing in Work”, with Prabal Chakrabarti, in Investing in America’s Workforce: Improving Outcomes for Workers and Employers, vol. II, pp. 1-14. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 2018. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/one-time-pubs/investing-in-work.aspx
“Inflation Persistence,” Chapter 9 in the Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3A, Benjamin Friedman and Michael Woodford, editors, 2011, North-Holland, San Diego CA. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BAmU044zTU_3oP7o9Y7il5OjSehZqVLl/view?usp=sharing
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CONFERENCE VOLUMES
“Japanese and U.S. Inflation Dynamics in the 21st Century,” Bank of Japan/IMES annual conference, May 2017, IMES Discussion paper E-5, 2017. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oxisi-bTZPtww5cbKc0G5HEbCdBepGsV/view?usp=sharing
Recent Developments in Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Financial System Design: A Conference to Honor Ben Friedman, Introduction to a Supplemental Issue of the International Journal of Central Banking, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l7flW3QQRI-i-OrVr8fTzlt3YuVqZ7xv/view?usp=sharing
“The Phillips Curve in Historical Context,” with Y. Kodrzycki, J. Little and G. Olivei, in Fuhrer, Kodrzycki, Little and Olivei, eds., Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2009. https://mitpress.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.7551/mitpress/9780262013635.001.0001/upso-9780262013635-chapter-1
“Estimating Forward-Looking Euler Equations with GMM and Maximum Likelihood Estimators: An Optimal Instruments Approach,” with Giovanni Olivei, in Models and Monetary Policy: Research in the Tradition of Dale Henderson, Richard Porter, and Peter Tinsley. Faust, J., Orphanides, A. and D. Reifschneider, eds. 2005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HFdeLwxvz1oS55H7kRc_E4LrMOtRo8sf/view?usp=sharing
“Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment: Conference Summary,” with M. Sniderman, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2, November 2000, pp. 845-869. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kh0PxIkxMJfRr34u158O5CTDGs_CRJ6H/view?usp=sharing
“Towards a Compact, Empirically-Verified Rational Expectations Model for Monetary Policy Analysis.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 47 (December 1997), 197-230. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qdMg-TaGrqm07wddnK0nFI2SWcg3UQq5/view?usp=sharing
“Technology and growth: an overview,” with Jane Sneddon Little. Conference Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1996. https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/conference/40/conf40a.pdf?la=en
“Optimal Monetary Policy and the Sacrifice Ratio”, in Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No. 38, 1994, pp. 43-69. https://drive.google.com/file/d/126LIgZOTjgQhfTmGeirMSewSPOog7n2c/view?usp=sharing
PUBLISHED COMMENTS
Comment on “Optimal Price Setting and Inflation Inertia in a Rational Expectations Model” by Michel Juillard, Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof and Douglas Laxton, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Volume 32, 2008, pp. 2536–2542. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qiVTjj-fY0W67IucuHFzu373L3JZS1Ht/view?usp=sharing
Comment on “How Forward-Looking Is Monetary Policy?” by Marc Giannoni and Michael Woodford, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 35 part 2, 2004 pp. 1477-1483. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3649894
Comment on “The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process,” by Christopher A. Sims, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Volume 2, 2002, pp. 50-57, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2002/06/2002b_bpea_sims.pdf
Comment on “Monetary Policy Issues in a Low-Inflation Environment,” by José Viňals, in Why Price Stability?, the First European Central Bank Central Banking Conference, November 2000, pp. 169-174. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/events/pdf/conferences/wps_vinals.pdf
Comment on “What Happened to the Phillips Curve in the 1990s in Canada?,” by P. Beaudry and M. Doyle, Bank of Canada Conference on Price Stability and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy, June 8-9, 2000. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/beaudry-final.pdf
“An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Comment”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1997, pp. 346-355 https://drive.google.com/file/d/11XRYPe946uwK13N5TRfnpy_xkFONW-TU/view?usp=sharing
“ `A Semi-Classical Model of Price Level Adjustment’: Comment”, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 41, 1994, pp. 285-294. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0167223194000220?via%3Dihub
EDITED CONFERENCE VOLUMES
Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective, with Kodrzycki, Little and Olivei, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA 2009.
Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment, with Mark Sniderman, proceedings of a joint Federal Reserve System conference, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 32, No. 4, Part 2, November 2000. https://www.jstor.org/stable/i344698
Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles?, with Scott D. Schuh, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series, No. 42, 1998. https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/events/economic-research-conference-series/beyond-shocks-what-causes-business-cycles.aspx
Technology and Growth, with Jane Little, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No. 40, 1996. https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/conference/40/conf40.pdf?la=en
Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No. 38, 1994. https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/events/economic-research-conference-series/goals-guidelines-and-constraints-facing-monetary-policymakers.aspx
POLICY BRIEFS
“Inflation Expectations and the Evolution of U.S. Inflation,” Public Policy Brief 11-4, August 2011. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/public-policy-brief/2011/inflation-expectations-and-the-evolution-of-us-inflation.aspx
“The Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Treasury Purchase Program,” with Giovanni P. Olivei, Public Policy Brief 11-2, July 2011. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/public-policy-brief/2011/the-estimated-macroeconomic-effects-of-the-federal-reserves-largescale-treasury-purchase-program.aspx
“The Role of Expectations and Output in the Inflation Process: An Empirical Assessment,” with Giovanni P. Olivei, Public Policy Brief 10-2, June 2010. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/public-policy-brief/2010/the-role-of-expectations-and-output-in-the-inflation-process-an-empirical-assessment.aspx
“A Proposal to Help Distressed Homeowners: A government payment-sharing plan,” with Chris Foote, Eileen Mauskopf and Paul Willen, FRB Boston Research Department Public Policy Briefs #09-01, 2009. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/public-policy-brief/2009/a-proposal-to-help-distressed-homeowners-a-government-payment-sharing-plan.aspx
“Issues In Economics: What Is the Cost of Deflation?” with Geoffrey M. B. Tootell. Regional Review 14(1) (Quarter 4, 2003/Quarter 1, 2004). https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e7PSBqRSzI5xnuzrgBkD8dcAw5HoSFbs/view?usp=sharing
“Issues In Economics: In a Booming Economy, Unemployment Has Remained Surprisingly Strong,” with Hoyt Bleakley and Ann Ferris. Regional Review 9(2) (Quarter 4, 1999). https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/regional-review/1999/quarter-4/issues-in-economics-in-a-booming-economy-unemployment-has-remained-surprisingly-high.aspx
NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW
“New Data on Worker Flows During Business Cycles,” with Hoyt Bleakley and Ann E. Ferris, July/August 1999. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gpTihzZNMs_2RT4-tCYklWgNMA2AN0ge/view?usp=sharing
“Beyond Shocks: An Overview.” with Scott D. Schuh, Sept./Oct. 1998. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Rprfl2QngwP7xiCL9D5Ic9Qea2WNLN86/view?usp=sharing
“Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, Job Matching, and Labor Market Dynamics.” , September/October 1997. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-_VVfY6HOiQ9RXAJBrjfCiUiqgq53sMw/view?usp=sharing
“Central Bank Independence and Inflation Targeting: Monetary Policy Guideposts for the Next Century?” Jan./Feb. 1997. https://drive.google.com/file/d/100y-d4MPWxVPAZLqv8FANZ1DY8g6J_6y/view?usp=sharing
“Technology and Growth: An Overview.” with Jane S. Little, Nov./Dec. 1996. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xNG8hD4QZUjOuOijFf_irfx-8ufCsitW/view?usp=sharing
“Monetary Policy and the Behavior of Long-Term Real Interest Rates”, September/October 1995. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Lkam3nETzlB-lCHidzebjdrVX3kXeT2N/view?usp=sharing
“The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well”, March/April 1995. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aLARSKuxBWinml8TjuzX_v9VvTzFfoDu/view?usp=sharing
“The Persistence of Inflation and the Cost of Disinflation”, Jan./Feb. 1995, 3-16. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WkliYbd_N7wzAhh39PBKjB5_3A_kWUG5/view?usp=sharing
“Goals, Guidelines, and Constraints Facing Monetary Policymakers: An Overview.” Sept./Oct. 1994, 3-15. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i47JS8fhZtUL5evfM5iiozbvnsi7_f1Y/view?usp=sharing
“Commodity Prices, the Term Structure of Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates: Useful Indicators for Monetary Policy?” Nov./Dec. 1993, 18-32. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eGYl2FYko5ATzmubhSaphjQ6hHW7Jukk/view?usp=sharing
“What Role Does Consumer Sentiment Play in the U.S. Macroeconomy?” Jan./Feb. 1993, 32-44. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gUepbU0IiOtWDedLYhpRrT_or8cXf1Ln/view?usp=sharing
“Do Consumers Behave as the Life-Cycle/Permanent-Income Theory of Consumption Predicts?” Sept./Oct. 1992, 3-14. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iQ3jME4MzQPokpJGIAvQ3cvE09SD9gBp/view?usp=sharing
UNPUBLISHED WORKING PAPERS
“The Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework in the wake of COVID-19: New Framework Elements, and ad hoc Fiscal-Monetary Coordination,” M-RCBG Associate Working Paper No. 163, March 2021. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp163
“Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy,” with Daniel Cooper and Giovanni Olivei, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspectives, 2020. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2020/predicting-recessions-using-the-yield-curve.aspx
“Intrinsic Expectations Persistence: Evidence from professional and household survey expectations,” FRBB Working Paper 18-5, revised May 2019. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vCRWBvffnlMB-XfVpW14IzuLvffVM5zB/view?usp=sharing
“Rules and Discretion: An Empirical Assessment,” with G. Olivei, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Annual Conference, October 2017. https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Images/discretionmonpol2017/fuhrer-olivei-paper.pdf
“Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model with Habit Formation,” July 2000.
“Computationally Efficient Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models”, FRB Boston Working Paper #96-2, July 1996. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/research-department-working-paper/1996/computationally-efficient-solution-and-maximum-likelihood-estimation-of-nonlinear-rational-expectations-models.aspx
“A Reduced-Form Assessment of the Indicator Properties of Asset Prices”, with G. Moore, working paper, Aug. 1991.
“Filtering the Information in Consumer Survey Expectations”, Board of Governors, FEDS paper # 25, 1989.
“A Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior with Expectation Errors Generated by Model Uncertainty”, Federal Reserve Board, Special Studies Paper #193, 1987.
“Model Uncertainty, Expectation Formation and Shock Persistence”, Federal Reserve Board, Special Studies Paper #194, 1986.
“Average Marginal Tax Rates for U.S. Household Interest and Dividend Income”, NBER Working Paper #1201, with A. Estrella, 1985.
Jeff Fuhrer 